Ukraine war may delay net-zero emission targets in EU: Expert

Aside from costing thousands of lives, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has also raised concerns on the energy crisis and of net-zero targets becoming increasingly distant worldwide.

One result of these risks is that countries dependent on coal may fall behind on their net-zero carbon emissions targets, an economic security specialist from Turkiye told Anadolu Agency.

Though there are countries in the EU dependent on Russian gas, considerable amounts of coal are also consumed in the bloc, particularly in the Balkans region, according to Levent Yilmaz, an academic at the Turkish National Police Academy.

This will inevitably create differences in the net-zero targets among such countries, said Yilmaz, who is also a senior research fellow at the Oxford Centre for Technology and Development.

"The net-zero targets of countries that consume high amounts of coal can't be the same as those of others, say France, because France produces 60-65% of its energy from nuclear," he explained.

However, it may not be appropriate to compare EU countries in the Balkans with those in Southern Europe, added Yilmaz, who said that when the bloc is viewed as an "energy union," different rates of dependency on different sources of energy become apparent.

The Balkans, eastern, and southeastern European countries will probably fall behind with their net-zero targets compared to the rest of Europe.

Challenges towards Green Transformation

Transitioning to green energy will not be easy, Yilmaz emphasized, explaining that for every $1 million of fossil fuels to be replaced, roughly ten times that amount is required in renewable energy.

Such high costs will bear a particular burden for the world as it navigates through the current challenging conditions in the global economic, especially after the strains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The war in Ukraine will also lead to added costs. "There may be a delay in reaching the net-zero targets. As Europe substitutes Russian gas, it may face highly expensive scenarios," Yilmaz went on.

'Incredibly high' gas prices

As part of its efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, the EU has, in part, turned to liquified natural gas (LNG), said Yilmaz.

However, the bloc's LNG supplies are not particularly diversified either, with 70% of its purchases coming from three countries: 26% from the US, 24% from Qatar, and 20% from Russia.

"In other words, Europe is purchasing LNG from Russia while trying to cut down on its dependency on Russia," he said.

Noting that EU countries tend to stock up on natural gas in the summer months when demand and prices are lower, Yilmaz warned that this year, they may have to pay higher sums to fill their reserves.

"If they don't get LNG, which is 20% of their imports, this could mean incredibly high natural gas prices, not just in the European market, but also in China and Latin America," he added.

Further, he said that chances of Europe solving its "serious problem" of energy supply any time soon appear slim.

Europe's near future energy needs

The pressure of the Green Transformation has been felt in the field of energy, said Yilmaz, noting the already "devastating" economic impact of the pandemic even before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out.

"As the energy market was flipped upside down with COVID-19, we observe that investments in this field, especially in natural gas and oil exploration and transmission, has decreased," he explained.

The EU's plans to abandon fossil fuels stands as one of the most significant reasons for this decrease, as it is one of the most high-energy-demand regions in the world, said Yilmaz, adding, however, that the war may bring certain changes, such as a decision to postpone the bloc's Green Deal.

"From time to time, we've seen the European Commission postpone decisions related to coal, change decisions on nuclear, and extend the cycle of gas-fired power plants for a little while more."

"The EU seems to be sticking to the Green Deal schedule for now, but actions so far suggest that the calendar may change," added the academic.

As the bloc rebuilds its security architecture, Yilmaz said, it will conduct new studies on economic security, including energy demand security.

Underlining the bloc's energy predicament will continue, at least for a while, he said its priorities may change regardless of the course and result of the war in Ukraine.

Turkiye's role in Europe's push for net-zero

As a major trade center that can serve to diminish Europe's dependence on Russian gas, Turkiye can play a significant role the EU's efforts to reach net-zero, according to Yilmaz.

He underscored that the country is an "important gate" for reaching net-zero targets in terms of both energy diversification in Europe and price safety.

"Turkiye can become a substantial clean energy supplier for Europe. With renewable energy, Turkiye can export energy to Europe," he said, adding that in the long term, the country can also significantly build up its existing clean energy infrastructure.

Fairer treatment of Turkiye indispensable

For Europe to make progress on its net-zero goals, it will need to treat Turkiye much more fairly, Yilmaz argued.

"Turkiye is a very strategic country in terms of European energy demand security and price security. Yet, there were no talks on energy during (Turkiye's) EU negotiations. They're trying to neglect Turkiye's potential," he said.

Various issues will likely surface in the future and effect EU energy policy, added Yilmaz, noting that one these would be a possible agreement to transport Israeli gas to Europe via Turkiye as the two countries normalize ties.

An increased role for gas from Iran and northern Iraq -- both neighbors of Turkiye -- and growing US lenience in its sanctions on Tehran as it raises the heat on Russia will also boost Ankara's importance vis-a-vis EU energy security, as will the possible transmission of gas from Turkmenistan to Europe via Turkiye.

"These show that the EU won't be able to solve this problem without Turkiye. But, it hasn't been fair towards Turkiye for a long time."