Nigeria: Defections make ruling APC’s future uncertain

Nigeria’s ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) has lost over 50 federal parliamentarians in a high-stake mass defection that mirrored its ascendancy to power in 2015.

The party is almost certain to lose more influential members -- governors, top lawmakers and senior government appointees -- in the coming weeks.

The defection has shrunk the party's majority in both houses, although a clearer picture of which party has what number would emerge only when the parliament resumes plenary in September.

Governor of north central Benue State Samuel Ortom expectedly left the party on Wednesday, having once alleged being “chased out of the APC.”

His counterparts in northwest Sokoto State Aminu Tambuwal, and north central Kwara State Abdulfattah Ahmed, are expected to move to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Senate President Bukola Saraki and parliament speaker Yakubu Dogara are also likely to quit.

Alleging persecution and victimization in a string of corruption trial and criminal indictments, Saraki said last week he was certain to quit the APC.

The development followed months of civil wars within the APC arising from intra-party power tussle. But perhaps the immediate trigger, according to analysts, is the calculation around the country's general elections in February 2019.

President Muhammadu Buhari, national leader of the APC, called the defection a “seasonal occurrence that happens on election eve.”

“As the saying goes, all politics is local,” the president had said, hours after the lawmakers announced their exit.

“We understand that some of the lawmakers have issues with their home states, especially on zoning which bars some of them from seeking another term in their constituencies.”

In Nigeria, state governors often decide the fate of politicians in their areas of influence since they control party machineries and determine who will emerge as candidates.

Analysts say most of the affected lawmakers stood no chance of getting tickets again and so had to leave for a platform willing to give them tickets.

They say Tambuwal and top lawmaker Rabiu Kwankwaso want to contest for presidential post but stand no chance of getting the APC ticket which Buhari is certain to clinch.

Insiders within APC and the PDP say Saraki and Dogara want to retain their headship of the parliament but are unsure about such prospect in the ruling party, owing in part to their controversial emergence in 2015 and their purported roles in frustrating Buhari’s “change” agenda.

“Everybody is just interested in what benefits them. This is all about their selfish ambition to return to the parliament. Some of them felt they were not getting protection against criminal prosecution. Nothing more,” Dapo Thomas, a teacher at the Lagos State University’s Department of History and International Studies, told Anadolu Agency.

Emeka Alex-Duru, a senior editor at the online news medium TheNiche, told Anadolu Agency the defections were a fallout of poor adherence to democratic principles in the running of party affairs.

“There is (of course) the angle of self-interest,” he added.

“Some of the lawmakers are eager to return for another term but may not have their way because of some issues in their various constituencies that bother on rotation principles or animosity with the governors and party leadership.”

- Will APC bite the dust?

The happenings in the ruling party is similar to the events that had brought it to power in 2015.

Months after Buhari made a mega coalition with Nigeria’s southwestern political titan Bola Tinubu, some five governors and dozens of federal lawmakers suddenly defected to the APC. This defection was believed to have aided APC’s victory.

The gale of defection from the APC has raised possibilities that it will meet the same fate that PDP went through in 2015.

The development has seen analysts making predictions on the fate of the APC. Some have said the defections may lead to a humiliating defeat for the APC, while others -- acknowledging the potential effects of the defections -- insisted the scenario in 2015 appears somewhat different from the existing political scene.

“I don't want to guess how the defections will determine which party will get more seats at the next parliament,” Thomas said. “But I don't see Buhari losing the presidency because some other factors will definitely come to play.”

Jibrin Ibrahim, a professor of political science, seems to agree with Thomas, arguing however that the president would have a tough time in the country's agrarian Middle Belt where herders-farmers’ crisis has festered.

“When the PDP presidential candidate emerges, it would become easier to see whether the contest against Buhari would be robust,” Ibrahim added.

Analysts wonder whether PDP, the main opposition party, would be able to produce a flag-bearer who could rival Buhari in key regions, and whether the party would survive a presidential primary likely to be turbulent.

The party currently has at least six formidable politicians eyeing its presidential ticket, each backed by separate groups within the party.

Buhari has since his entry into politics in 2003 always won convincingly in the northwest -- the largest voting bloc in Nigeria. Analysts believe it is too early to say how far a Kwankwaso or Tambuwal candidature, both from northwest, will affect his chances.

Buhari has always won in the northeast too. While Boko Haram remains an issue in the region, analysts say the president has done a lot to take the militants away from the front burner.

In southwest region, the country’s second largest voting bloc, Buharists still expect sizable votes that would clinch the seat, banking on the support of Tinubu and the region's all-APC governors.

However, there is no telling yet how the not-so-rosy state of the economy and Buhari’s lackluster attitude to political reforms -- key demands of the region -- would cause an upset in the politically-savvy southwest.

Ibrahim agrees, saying: “In a sense, the southwest might be the final arbiter in terms of who wins the elections and the president’s problem is that he has been dismissive of their core political demand of restructuring.”