India-Pakistan arms race still in high gear despite thaw

Despite last week’s resumption of peace talks between Pakistan and India, there seems to be no lull in the decades-long arms race between the two nuclear-armed rivals, with frequent increases in their already hefty defense budgets and regular missile tests.

Muslim-majority Pakistan paid Hindu-dominated India back in the same coin Friday by testing its surface-to-surface ballistic Shaheen-III missile -- capable of carrying nuclear and conventional payloads up to 2,700 kilometers -- following India’s testing last month of its Agni-IV missile.

With over 30 percent of their populations living below the poverty line, India and Pakistan have made 17 and 11 percent increases, respectively, in their defense budgets in the 2015/16 fiscal year, according to official figures.

Currently, New Delhi is spending $40 billion a year on defense, while Pakistan has earmarked $7.6 billion for defense expenditures this fiscal year.

India ranked eighth on the list of countries with the largest military expenditures in 2015, while Pakistan’s defense budget was five times smaller.

India boasts the world’s third largest army after the U.S. and China, with an active troop-strength of over 1.3 million. Pakistan, meanwhile, stands eighth on the list with a 600,000-man army.

India and Pakistan have been locked in several disputes over land and sea boundaries since Pakistan was created after the end of British rule and the partition of India in 1947. 

India and Pakistan have fought three wars, two of which were over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.  

 Arms imports

India, for its part, is gradually increasing its defense spending, as it seeks to modernize its aging military and assert itself as a regional power.

"India was the largest importer of weapons between 2010 and 2014, with a 15-percent share of global [arms] imports," Pratinav Anil, a scholar on Europe and Asia at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, told Anadolu Agency.

India's total defense spending has doubled in real terms since 1997, growing at a rate of 6.3 percent a year.

"According to Ernst and Young’s, India plans to spend over $100 billion by 2020 on new [military] material," Anil said, noting that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was keen to increase defense spending with a view to augmenting India’s hard power.

According to government statistics, India spends 31.5 percent of its defense budget on "capital acquisitions", meaning the procurement of military equipment. A full 60 percent of the country’s defense requirements are currently met through imports.

In April, Modi signed a deal with France to buy 36 Dassault Rafale fighter jets at an estimated cost of $8 billion. India is also negotiating the purchase of 12 Japanese US-2i amphibious aircraft worth a total of $1.3 billion.

The Sweden-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) confirms that from 2009 to 2014, India was the world’s top-ranking arms purchaser, coming in second after Saudi Arabia in 2015 with a total spending of $2.6 billion.

India makes almost 70 percent of its total arms procurements from Russia, which has traditionally been New Delhi’s top arms provider.

Pakistan, by comparison, spent nearly $1.5 billion on the import of military hardware in 2015, becoming the world’s 10th largest weapons importer.

China represents Pakistan’s largest defense partner, followed by the U.S. -- Islamabad’s ally in the so-called war on terrorism. In July, Pakistan and China signed a multibillion-dollar deal by which Beijing will provide Pakistan’s navy with eight submarines.

 Nuclear powers

Pakistan and India are among a small handful countries with nuclear arsenals. India joined the nuclear club long before Pakistan, in 1974, prompting Islamabad to follow suit.

Pakistan silently developed its own nuclear capability in the 1980s, when it was an ally of the U.S. in the first Afghan war against the crumbling Soviet Union.

It did not conduct any nuclear tests, however, until India carried out a series of its own tests in 1999. Only three weeks later, Pakistan conducted six successful tests in the remote Chaghi district near the Afghanistan-Iran border, stoking fears of a nuclear war between the longtime rivals. 

According to SIPRI, India currently possesses between 80 and 100 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan holds between 90 and 110.

A number of international think tanks, meanwhile, which blame China for assisting Pakistan’s nuclear program, believe the size of Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal will cross the 200-mark within the next five years.

In 2004, India unveiled its "Cold Start Doctrine" to deal with its arch-rival. According to this doctrine, the Indian armed forces can mobilize half a million troops within 72 hours and -- theoretically -- invade Pakistan with Mobilized Armored Units (MAUs) and Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs).

"Cold Start was a major watershed in India’s defense policy history, which has been dominated by doctrines of a defensive nature. This has troubled Pakistan and led it to rely more on nuclear weapons, which has escalated tensions further," Anil said.

 Heroes and villains

Both India and Pakistan have several intermediate- and short-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The missiles produced by the two rivals are named after famous warriors and mythological characters, considered heroes in one country and villains in the other.

For instance, in 1990, India named its first ballistic missile after Pirthivi Raj Chohan, a 12th-century Hindu warrior. Only weeks later, Pakistan test fired its first "Ghauri" ballistic missile, named after Afghan King Shahabudddin Ghauri, who conquered Delhi after defeating his rival.

Other types of Pakistani missiles -- the "Ghaznavi", "Babur" and "Abdali" -- are named after other Muslim warriors -- Mahmoud Ghaznavi, Zaheeruddin Babur and Ahmed Shah Abdali -- who defeated different Indian armies in the 11th, 16th and 18th centuries, respectively.

India’s "Agni", "Tirshol" and "Naag" ballistic missiles, meanwhile, are named after characters and weapons drawn from ancient Hindu mythology.

So despite the recent peace overtures, a devastating nuclear exchange between the two countries -- perhaps over the flashpoint region of Kashmir -- remains a frightening prospect.

"The nuclear arms race is still very much a reality in South Asia," Anil asserted. "Some observers would go so far as to call it the most worrying nuclear problem of our times."